The changing tides of the Virtual Universe..

by Lloydin Tripp

At first glance these articles could depress the unprepared. Are
virtual worlds in decline? Is Second Life on life support?

No, no and no.

If you look at the growth of arc of the internet: obscure academic project, who cares, solves everything, con game, financial implosion, it is real and we cannot live without it, Web 2.0, social networking and now... backbone of economy, the virtual world as interface to the user experience of information access, is on much the same path. And like all technology movements, a little faster and little wiser than the last. Pundits are bit more pragmatic than the last circus parade, there is a bit of a bubble in virtual world technology, but all in all, its maturing naturally.

In the late 90's there were the March1sts and RazorFishes to the internet boom. They got million dollar projects to do websites their clients really did not need or want but the stampede was on and hey no one wanted to get caught standing on the dock looking like they had
missed the boat. The rest is short term history: they are gone, a lot of people watched their stock portfolios evaporate, a lot of people got laid off from jobs they were not qualified for in the first place and clients got smarter. We went from corporations, broadcast networks
and ad firms saying, "What the hell is the web?" to most producing podcasts, having in house Flash and PDF design groups and now dipping their toes in virtual worlds.

In the virtual universe, the big 3 project producers, in order of age, Rivers Run Red, Electric Sheep and Millions of Us (London, New York and San Francisco) are perfect examples of the how this arc of maturity is playing out. Electric Sheep fell on its sword by laying
off a quarter of its staff and spinning it as the typical reassessment and restructuring. But long time watchers paint a different portrait of short term gains and selling their clients a high ticket price bill of goods. Electric Sheep were the masters of the "lonely island." Just like in the web, virtual worlds are no "Field of Dreams" you cannot build it and they will come. But Electric Sheep continued to con their clients into island sims, take the big money, wish them good luck and then walk away. For some time I have been listening to the unhappy chatter from their clients about why is no one on my island? I am sure their clients will be made to feel better now that the Electric Sheep claim these projects were "too small for them." But even their big
projects are in some trouble, the 7,5 million dollar OnRez-CSI project with the CBS TV network investment, has been considered a flop in media circles. Despite a custom viewer, big investor and popular TV show they still went back to what they know, `lonely island'.

Electric Sheep is not the only company guilty of this mistaken approach, many moderate and smaller companies have followed suit and are most likely to suffer similar consequences, Millions of Us will most likely continue to milk their crony connections to Linden Labs (founder is former VP of marketing for Linden Labs) but hyperbole and spin can only go so far.

There is one stand out example of virtual world development company that has not followed these trends, Rivers Run Red. I do not know where they got their name unless it is a tongue in cheek reference to the common tech phrase that refers to the amount of money lost in
technology start ups. You do not hear about them much. No big press and no large spin about how they are the latest and greatest. Even though they are quiet and stealthy they make up it for in power and project list. They are a company to admire and learn from.

There several reasons for their success. The classic mistake of American firms is to speak loudly and then later deliver. Everyone hopes to be the tip of the narrow wedge, gain market place and then force that wedge open and wider. Its a ploy that works if you can deliver. The trouble is that even if you can execute successfully you are sacrificing your control over perception and user expectations. If you are quiet and understated you will continue to delight and
surprise your clients and end users and baffle your competitors. When you are a company founded by marketing folk, the only coarse of action you know to execute when you get in trouble is to do more marketing, this is like handing a shovel to a man standing in the bottom of a
hole.

Besides not tooting their horn too loudly, Rivers Runs Red is highly diverse, broad and deep in their approach. They understand that virtual worlds are a powerful communication tool but that its a technology that does not stand alone. It will not make you a better lover or walk your dog. They do not even refer to this technology as virtual worlds but tend to use the phrase `immersive spaces'. One of the best examples is their "Immersive Workspace" project, this project looks at virtual worlds as a technology development platform that merges existing real world methodologies with virtual world advantages.

Another example of their difference in approach to developing and marketing virtual worlds is their in-world project "Our Netherlands." This is a collaboration between them, ING and Phillips and is completely opposite the `lonely island'. This project is somewhat an experiment but is growing slowing and gradually. An attempt to grow a complete community.

So where does Swissopolis stand among this swirl of change and tumult? Maybe its my spin, but I think sitting pretty. I see the failings of Electric Sheep as a vindication of our theory and approach, build a community with embedded and interactive clients not isolated islands. They and Rivers Run Red offer both warnings and confirmations to our path to the future.

As to the numbers for Second Life, yes it would be nicer to see better and faster growth but the sky is not falling. The last 60 days login are slightly flat, in-world purchasing is slightly down, short term, mostly due to ending gambling. But new registrants are growing, land is continuing to be purchased a steady clip and most importantly I have never seen higher numbers of people online at one time, last week Second Life had a 56,000 day, a record and its growing.

Earlier growth numbers were unnatural and unsustainable. Second Life was not ready for prime time at that level. Linden Labs has learned their lesson, talk less and do more. They over hyped Second Life, the press amplified people cam and got disappointed, they left and probably will not give it another try easily. We want hard core, dedicated users, not those who have been told will solve all your ills and then they find it does not. Remember, delight and surprise -not anger and disappoint.

Links:

Stories about Electric Sheep...
Virtual World News
http://www.virtualworldsnews.com/2007/12/interview-elect.html
Clickz
http://www.clickz.com/showPage.html?page=3627922
...and the best and most complete story..
InformationWeek
http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2007/12/electric_sheep.html
Electric Sheep
http://www.electricsheepcompany.com/core/
Millions of Us
http://www.millionsofus.com/
Rivers Runs Red
http://www.riversrunred.com/index.php
Rivers Runs Red Immersive Workspace
http://www.riversrunred.com/video.php?id=368